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Old 06-12-2007, 04:57 PM
captZEEbo captZEEbo is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: blog: Oct 23- Diary MD-pt 4
Posts: 6,927
Default Re: Taking out a prosper loan to buy stocks

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What was it like a 6% compounded return he would have to achieve to make money on this?

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Don't be ridiculous. How can you think that borrowing money at 13% and using the funds to earn 6% could possibly make money?

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It's a PRINCIPAL PAYDOWN loan. He is paying 30k over 3 years to borrow 25k now. That's only 5k that he has to make over 3 years on the stock market to make money.

If he puts the 25k into the market now and doesn't touch it, then yes after a 6% to 7% return he has more than 30k after 3 years.

26750 after year 1.
28622.5 after year 2.
30626.08 after year 3.

As I have already stated, I am not saying it is foolproof, but it isn't a HORRIBLE idea. Many people are already doing the float thing (taking loans just to use the money to make them) on prosper already.

[/ QUOTE ]We already went over this. You are ignoring opportunity cost.






For OP, I'd bet up to 10k that you don't get 20-30% a year over 3 years. Remember, you said you were CONFIDENT you can get over 20-30% per year. So I assume CONFIDENT means > 50%. This bet is very +EV for you, so you'd be a fool not to take my offer. Either that, or you don't actually believe in your plan and want to gamboooool.

Let me put it this way: If a forum of investors (some professional and in the business for decades, some merely studious and still learning) all look at your plan and say this is a horrible horrible plan, and not one person says this plan makes ANY sense....why do you think that is? To be blunt, you remind me of people that think the Holocaust is a myth.

It's not as if people on this forum are being pessimistic and saying your plan probably won't work, we are telling, you based on the numbers you have NO CHANCE other than getting ungodly lucky.

This isn't even one of those situations where you hear stories like little business man went up against all odds, and risked his steady job to try his own business despite all his friends and family nay-saying and baffled everyone when it worked. This is like, you are playing a mathematical game and are just ignoring the numbers for no reason.

P.S. This thread puts me on hyper tilt.
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