[w_alloy]

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turn fold>river fold


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Folding the turn is tempting but bad. We are behind his range, but not by a ton, and are calling 37 in a 175 pot closing the action. There are too many draws that could raise us here, and our hand is decently disguised after the flop check.

On the river, my standard is to call this, but I can certainly see folding some of the time. I wouldn't shove without a better read, as many players at these limits get stubborn with marginal hands in situations like this, especially with the line you took.

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this turn raise is almost never a draw.

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Hands that made an open ended straight draw on this turn (granted only TJ is likely): TJ, T8, T6. And although it's unlikely, we can't rule out a flush draw. This is 2/4 NL and we don't have reads, so the donk factor here is significant.

His raise size may suggest he doesn't have a draw, but it certainly doesn't rule it out. And all this is mitigated by the odds we are getting.

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i'm not totally against a call/call line here, but calling this turn to fold to a smallish river bet is silly.

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I agree with you most of the time, except that it sounds like OP in this hand got a more specific read that he didn't predict on the turn, with the river bet size. Using this new intuition/whatever he was able to fold to the river bet. This line is not inconsistent if you gain new information on the hand on the river, and this extra info allows you to fold.