[WCGRider]

Ok some calculations.

503.28 (Remaining prize pool)

Chip Equity

30000 .228
16000 .179
130000 .365

61400 .284 Push and Win
15800 .170
28800 .213
99800 .333

33600 .232 Push and BB folds
15800 .174
28800 .219
161400 .375

0 . 11 Push and lose

30700 .230 Push and tie
15800 .178
28800 .224
13700 .368


44 vs 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T9s,A2o+,K2o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9 o

Now, this range is very very wide, however, if he really dislikes you, and has called with less then admirable holdings before, this is a rough guess as to what his range is. If you think its tighter or lower then tell me.

.11 x .488 : 0.05368
plus
.284 x .44 : 0.12496
plus
.230 x .0358 : .008234


equals 0.186874 of the prize pool or 94$.

However, the range listed is not any hand, but rather 45.1% of them. (As much as he dislikes you, the chance of being called with an incredibly poor hand such as 25o or 83o is very low, that would hurt his chipstack far too much.)

So then 0.186874 x .451 equals 0.0843
.232 x .549 equals .127368

So thus, your equity with a push on that range is .212 or 106.7$

your current equity is 114.74$

Of course, if he will literally call you with ATC it changes the calculations, but i think (playing these a lot myself) im somewhere in the ballpark here.


And of course if one of the remaining two players wakes up with a hand, you are completely dominated and in big trouble, so that also hurts your equity. (There is not enough information given to put them on an accurate range.)

So judging by this, clearly this is not where you want to get your money in pf.

So through process of elimination, I think this is best to fold here.