Re: Bluffing a Callingstation at NL50
so, you're hoping that when you push on a heart river, he calls. but when it blanks... he folds.
eh !?
flop 3bet all in is the only way I can think of this being +ev, being all in lets us see turn and river with him pot committed, and since our draw comes in about 44% of the time by then, we need him to fold this flop sometimes. which he probably would.
would have bet more Preflop also, taking stack sizes into account, there'd be more money to push over the top of on the flop, but not so much that he's in any way committed. I can see him calling with an ace, but not usually a ten.
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