[Antinome]

Really?

We are a favorite to win this hand by the river. A 10% edge is huge, and when you add to that the fold equity -however small- that wins us the dead money, we have to push and we don't really care if he calls, though we prefer he folds. (that's usually the case in combo draws with dead money- this hand is so huge I'd have to do the math to be sure)

This is a game of exploiting small edges over and over. Folding here is giving up our rightful share of that pot to our opponents. That adds up on our opponent's ledger the same way our small edges and fold equity add up on our ledger, and we become the losing players if we do it enough.
Obviously we can't do that.

In a perfect world with the most gullible fish in the world you could make an argument for calling, hitting, and getting all your money in as a prohibitive favorite on the turn. Unfortunately for us, not enough fish are foolish enough to call when our obvious draw comes in. I don't see a read that says this guy is 'special', or will get stupid stubborn x% of the time.

I'm not saying that calling this flop isn't +EV. I'm quite sure it is. It just isn't as profitable as pushing. And it isn't close unless he's dumb as a box of turnips.

Don't fear the variance. Variance is transitory. Embrace it. It is our friend. It makes the bad players play with us.