View Single Post
  #2  
Old 06-07-2007, 01:14 PM
ILOVEPOKER929 ILOVEPOKER929 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Omaha Fish
Posts: 5,114
Default Re: $30/$60 hand Bellagio

PREFLOP: Depending on how bad the players play behind me, this is a call/fold decision for me. I dont like the idea of raising with 44's cuz its so hard to successfully isolate in today's games whether its live or online, and even if you do get this pot HU youre in a reverse implied odds potential nightmare since it will be very hard to play 44's optimally vs a FPS agressive guy.

Once you raise and the BB calls and the Aggressive guy 3bets, I think 4betting is a good play if you have a strong feeling that the BB will fold quite often for 2 more small bets. Getting this pot HU with dead money in the pot vs an aggressive player who doesnt always have AA/KK in this spot would be a good event. If the BB is like most live players and is not the type to fold in that spot then just calling the LRR would be the better course.

FLOP: Im not being results oriented when I say dont slowplay! This board is too connected to wait til the turn, and you already have both players committed for a small bet, and raising the flop can still set up a turn raise or 3bet for you. The reason that slowplaying on this board is usually incorrect is not becuz someone could turn a straight, it is becuz a scare card(A,K,7,5) could cause you to lose your action.

TURN: This play is close between coldcalling the turn and 3betting. Its hard to put anybody on 5x or T9 given the preflop/flop action. If you believe the BB will bet the turn with many nonstraight hands and the FPS guy will raise the turn with many nonstraight hands, 3betting the turn for pure value can be the play.

RIVER: The river play is close only becuz both these players could conceivably play a higher set this way. No one has a straight right now since 5x or T9 is very unlikely given the preflop/flop/turn action. Since its obvious that you dont have a straight I would expect you to get 4 bet on the turn if someone had a straight also.

The only thing you have to worry about now is 88,77,66 and 8dXd. However if these players are decent handreaders, even a higher set should give you more action on the turn. I would certainly expect the aggressive player to 4bet the turn if he had 88/77/66 but maybe Im giving him too much credit.

Becuz of the defining qualities of the turn play(ie: No 4bet means no one in theory can have a straight and even a higher set drops in probability) I would value bet the river and expect to somehow get called by lesser hands.
Reply With Quote