Re: 30/60 QTs
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So you put him on a lower flush draw? That he's 3-betting on the turn with a double paired board?
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I suspect Jason's thinking was more along the lines
i) He never checks this flop with a J or 4
ii) Therefore he is just bluffing because the pot seems his to steal
iii) Therefore I will resteal it. If he gets suspicious and calls down with Ace or King high, I have lots of outs.
iv) Oh he 3 bet me. Ah, he knows that I know he doesn't have a J or 4. So he knows I could be doing this lite. Further, he must suspect I would have bet flop or turn with a Jack or 4, so he must highly suspect I am bluffing, and is rebluffing.
v) I have lots of outs if I am behind (as I know he doesnt have a full house). Therefore I call.
vi) Well, he didn't get rid of me on the turn. Presuming my read is correct that he doesn't have a full house, what would he bet the river with? He wouldn't do it with Ace high as he would expect all worse hands to fold, and better ones to call. I can't see him plating 55-TT this way, as he would have bet the flop with them, and if for some reason he didn't he would likely have just called down my c/r since he has a hand that beats a bluff.
vii) So really he either has a King, a luckily river 5, or I am good.
viii) Given all the possibilities, and the size of the pot, I am good here enough for calling to be + EV.
iv) Therefore, I call.
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