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bilbo-san · #**577** 06-03-2007, 09:48 PM

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I'm really surprised -10BI is supposed to be standard. I've only lost 10BI once ever, and I was on huge monkeytilt. Multiple swings around -5BI, though.

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I'm the same way.

TBH, I think we're missing a lot of marginally +EV bluffing situations that we don't make because they usually cost you a stack when you are picked off (i.e. our Cajones are small and shrivelled).

So let's say you've got a feel for it and you're making a lot of all-in bluffs where you're probably about +3-4 PTBB EV (on average) per hand (maybe less, just pulling a number outta my ass for illustration purposes). You're making a lot of money over the long term, but of course your variance is huge because you are basically swinging +/- a stack all the time.

For me, I know it's a bankroll issue. I need 40-50 buy-ins to start playing like a want to play.

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It's definitely not a bankroll issue for me. I've got ~20k online right now, spread over various sites. I should be moving up, but I still don't feel I'm really crushing 200NL, as I felt I was crushing 100NL before I moved up. I ran at 7+ PTBB over a significant sample there, whereas I'm ~4PTBB at 200NL lifetime. Maybe a much higher winrate isn't possible for a nit like me.

I just don't think I have the right feel for spots in which I should be making those big bluffs. The thing about Stars 200NL is that most regulars really really hate folding. I should have a really tight image, and I'm still constantly surprised by what people pay me off with in certain spots. Spots in which I'll never ever or very very rarely show them a bluff.

Earlier in the May cheese thread you commented on a hand where my opponent cold-called my RR from then SB, then check-called with QQ twice against my OESFD. That was a spot in which I show up with a bluff (or even a semibluff) very very rarely. I'm just not going to have a hand I can bluff with very often, and I c-bet into two players on an immensely wet board in a reraised pot! I decided to bluff there especially because of that, but I still got called, and really, I knew I was going to be called. I think I should've reverse-posted that hand, I really think everyone would've told me to fold.

I have been working on some things to get more tricky, though: shoving flops against light 3betters with overcards/gutshots, floating in RR pots and double barreling a bit more. All plays that increase my variance, but I think they're +EV, both in the long run and for shania when I get caught.

As an example, villain seemed like a pretty good TAG. Yada yada blind battle TPTK is the nuts, but I'm just never ever showing him a worse hand. I really think he should be folding AQ here, but most Stars 200NL regs are never going to! Until they do, I'm just going to show them a set in this spot every time.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $198.00
Hero (BB): $236.20
UTG: $225.00
CO: $429.45
BTN: $178.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
3 folds, SB raises to $8.00, Hero calls $6.00

Flop: ($16) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $12.00, Hero raises to $38.00, SB calls $26.00

Turn: ($92) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $58.00, SB raises all-in to $152.00, Hero calls $94.00

River: ($396) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $396.00 ($2 Rake)

SB had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$198.00)
Hero had 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Eights) and WON (+$196.00)

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J-

You're approaching this the wrong way, imho. I'm not as laggy as Carrotsnake or Clayton or Tufat (or at least as laggy as everyone THINKS they are), but imho the way to LAG it up is to simply read hands and then try to push Villains off their hands when Villains don't much like their hand.

The classic (and overly simplified) version of this is floating in position and then betting the turn with a gutshot (or raising the flop with one). You aren't trying to make villains fold STRONG hands, you are trying to make them fold the bottom of their range. If villain can have 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board, then clearly it's great to get him to fold when you have 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]!

Similarly, it's great to get people to fold TT on a QJ3 board when you have 98, or AK, or 55.

So the illustrations you provide aren't very telling. 95% of regs just don't fold overpairs or TPGK+ (and they are correct not to do so in general, but not so much against you), and no matter how nitty you are, if you appear solid, they'll always optimistically think you have a draw (or the same hand). [by the way, the AQ hand above is funny -- I think it's [censored] hilarious when people take the stack-a-donk line vs. solid players -- does that EVER work? Anyone here EVER seen a solid regular call the above stack-a-donk with, like, KQ? Without some history?]

So forget getting people to fold strong hands like QQ+ as overpairs or TPTK, it's about getting people to fold hands that (they think) are marginal, that actually crush you. And that's really just all about hand reading and getting a feel for your opponents (i.e. bluffing people that can't fold a pair is stupid even if you read hands so well that you KNOW they have bottom pair).

Anyway, the better lags can chime in if I have said anything outrageous here.