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I'm really surprised -10BI is supposed to be standard. I've only lost 10BI once ever, and I was on huge monkeytilt. Multiple swings around -5BI, though.
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I'm the same way.
TBH, I think we're missing a lot of marginally +EV bluffing situations that we don't make because they usually cost you a stack when you are picked off (i.e. our Cajones are small and shrivelled).
So let's say you've got a feel for it and you're making a lot of all-in bluffs where you're probably about +3-4 PTBB EV (on average) per hand (maybe less, just pulling a number outta my ass for illustration purposes). You're making a lot of money over the long term, but of course your variance is huge because you are basically swinging +/- a stack all the time.
For me, I know it's a bankroll issue. I need 40-50 buy-ins to start playing like a want to play.
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It's definitely not a bankroll issue for me. I've got ~20k online right now, spread over various sites. I should be moving up, but I still don't feel I'm really crushing 200NL, as I felt I was crushing 100NL before I moved up. I ran at 7+ PTBB over a significant sample there, whereas I'm ~4PTBB at 200NL lifetime. Maybe a much higher winrate isn't possible for a nit like me.
I just don't think I have the right feel for spots in which I should be making those big bluffs. The thing about Stars 200NL is that most regulars really really hate folding. I should have a really tight image, and I'm still constantly surprised by what people pay me off with in certain spots. Spots in which I'll never ever or very very rarely show them a bluff.
Earlier in the May cheese thread you commented on a hand where my opponent cold-called my RR from then SB, then check-called with QQ twice against my OESFD. That was a spot in which I show up with a bluff (or even a semibluff) very very rarely. I'm just not going to have a hand I can bluff with very often, and I c-bet into two players on an immensely wet board in a reraised pot! I decided to bluff there especially because of that, but I still got called, and really, I knew I was going to be called. I think I should've reverse-posted that hand, I really think everyone would've told me to fold.
I have been working on some things to get more tricky, though: shoving flops against light 3betters with overcards/gutshots, floating in RR pots and double barreling a bit more. All plays that increase my variance, but I think they're +EV, both in the long run and for shania when I get caught.
As an example, villain seemed like a pretty good TAG. Yada yada blind battle TPTK is the nuts, but I'm just never ever showing him a worse hand. I really think he should be folding AQ here, but most Stars 200NL regs are never going to! Until they do, I'm just going to show them a set in this spot every time.
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (
LegoPoker HH Converter)
<u>
SB: $198.00</u>
<u>
Hero (BB): $236.20</u>
UTG: $225.00
CO: $429.45
BTN: $178.75
<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $8.00</font>, Hero calls $6.00
<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($16) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $12.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $38.00</font>, SB calls $26.00
<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($92) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $58.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $152.00</font>, Hero calls $94.00
<font color="black">River:</font> ($396) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)
Pot Size: $396.00 ($2 Rake)
SB had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$198.00)
Hero had 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Eights) and WON (+$196.00)