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Old 06-01-2007, 05:55 AM
Fiksdal Fiksdal is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 4,444
Default Re: Hands from tonights session

Why are everyone saying flat call in hand1?

1. We get no innitiative in the hand. We will not be able to cbet the flops we don't like. Everytime we whiff the flop, we lose those 8bbs the call took. And we will whiff about 2/3 of the time, possibly even more ofen considering the raise and reraise in front of us, which suggest that some of the aces/kings might already be out of the deck. Which leads us to the next point.

2. We have huge reverse implied odds. MP3 has shown a lot of strenght, espcecially considering this is full ring. AA/KK are a decent part of his range. For instance, if he has AA/KK and the flop comes K75r, we are likely to lose a lot of money. Even when we hit the flop, it might not really be a good thing for us.

3. We have no implied odds. If villain has KK and an ace high flop comes, we are unlikely to make a lot of money. Simmilary, if villain has QQ or another pocket pair, and we hit a pair on the flop, then that will be a scary board for villain. The only really profitable scenario I can come up with is if MP3 has QQ and the flop comes TJQ, in which we get it in with about 65% equity. Other than that, pretty much every flop sucks for us.

Even if villain was 3betting AQ here (unlikely in FR maybe, I don'r RLY know)?, most of the flops we are both going to whiff, and villain will pwn us with his cbet.

So personally I like 4betting a lot more than flat calling, but I can imagine that in FR, even 4betting is -EV here because of the risk/reward ratio (only better hands call/push to a 4bet, and we are basically risking our entire stack, only to win the small amount of money already in the pot).

When all the options you have at a point rate to be -EV, you obv chose the option which always have a neutral EV, folding.

Folding might seem nitty here, but stop that "zomg we have AK we don't fold" thought process. Start thinking like a poker player guys.
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