Re: So Am I A NIt?
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Perhaps by some people's standards. If you use the gambler's scale. But certainly not otherwise. Here are two questions:
All of the people in this country with a liquid bankroll between 100K and 10 mil are offered 7-5 on the flip of a fair coin. ONE TIME ONLY. There is NO DOUBT the flip is fair. Doubt is assumed not to be part of this problem, though in real life it would be.
A. How much do you think I would REALLY bet as a percentage of my bankroll?
B. What proportion of all 100K to 10 Mil Americans would bet a higher proportion of their bankroll (lets also elimate those with pressing expenses)?
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A. If you go by Kelly, then around 14%.
B. Probably a very low proportion. I think a lot of the more savvy types might bet the Kelly amount, especially as the could view it as just gambling with a year's return on a portfolio of passive investments, with the upside of increasing their "roll" by 40%, and without having to dip into investment capital except for one year's return not possibly being reinvested partially or in full.
But in fact, I think the majority of that class of people might not even be willing to wager 14% of their roll, as they would mistakely view the wager as "gambling", not realizing that is what their investments are as well, and that might especially be the case if they are more into real estate.
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