[Utah]

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I'm slightly confused. You're saying they need to be above .500 when the allstar break hits. This bet seems to say that they must get above .500 sometime by the allstar break. In other words, they could go on a 13-3 run and this bet would lose. I'm not saying this still isn't a good bet, but they do not need to go 23-13 for this to lose.

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That is correct and I missed that in my haze.

I ran some simple simulations. These are the number of times the team reaches 9 wins over loses at any point prior to allstar break.

Using 50/50 chance for each game - 2 out of 20
Using 55/45 chance for each game - 8 out of 20
Using 60/40 chance for each game - 16 out of 20

Given their current records and there upcoming competition, it would be hard to give them over 50/50. But, the bet is still positive EV if you assume 55% chance of winning each game. If you got to 60% win rate (roughly a 100 win season) then the bet is -EV.

Note - I just checked and the odds on the after allstar break have dropped to +200 now.