Re: Iffy at Best?
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Basically it's about 1/6 for the bare Boss Ace to have been dealt to 3 opponents
Doesn't sound right. 3 opponents hold 12 cards between them. After the flop, you can see 7 of the 52 cards in the deck. The odds that the unseen ace is in one of their hands should be exactly 12/45 (neglecting adjustments for their hand ranges and the like), or a little more than one in four.
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Yes thank you for pointing that out! I wrote a post showing working, it got 'lost' and then in a rush I re-posted and managed to mangle it completely.
The 54% figure is though right, and 12/45 * 54/100 = 0.144 or 1/6.94; So the 1/6 was actually a pessimistic discount rate, based on 1/2 * 1/3, presuming 2 of the players would actually fold some hands.
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