[kdotsky]

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OK, lets put it differently. As long as only a few people know an angle they couldn't possibly move the price to what they think is correct. Because the closer they moved it to that price the greater the amount of money that would bet the other side.

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Ok so you have to argue that very few people see the same angle as you.

You're saying it's hard for the price to become correct because the massive other side pushes back; but it's going to be corrected eventually -- that's why you buy it. But you still don't know WHEN it's going to be corrected. How do you know it hasn't already corrected itself at the time you're investing? It's not like when the correction happens the public is going to walk around saying "oh TASR isn't so bad, everyone overreacted to the rare deaths thing". And when you see the price go up you have no idea if it just corrected or went up because of unrelated factors.