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Old 05-23-2007, 07:29 PM
King Yao King Yao is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 810
Default Re: The Well: King Yao

"How long have you been betting sports?"
Since high school, but not seriously until 1999.

"How often do you bet sports?"
Almost every day.

"What's the top misconception most sports bettors believe to be true?"
That a good handicapper can win at a rate greater than 55%. I don't even think a great handicapper can hit greater than that rate. A good one should be happy with 53% against widely available lines.

"What sort of mathematical techniques (if any) do you use to handicap or bet sports?"
I don't know if I can list them all here...but, I'll try. Mostly, I use stuff that is available on Excel, I don't use other software. Mathematical techniques include: simulations via Excel macros, possion distribution for props, simple arithmetic functions but may be a pain in the butt to write all the formulas into Excel (such as every permutation of a 7-game NBA playoff series), multiple regression, and although this is not a true mathematical technique, it's probably the best thing I do - that's comparing relative-value between two related bets.

"Like the blog, though it isn't updated much."
That is true, especially in the last few months when all of my time was taken up in writing the book. I will probably post a bit more often now, but it will come in spurts. Maybe one week I'll post everyday, but then I won't post for a couple of weeks. <font color="blue"> </font>
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