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No sense betting on the river. If he made his hand he calls or reraises and takes the pot and if he missed his hand he'll probably fold. He may be betting top pair/ decent kicker but if that's the case he'll probably just call your bet anyway. If you bet and have the best hand at showdown you're either gonna get zero or one bet from villian with the odds favoring zero. If you bet and villian made the hand you'll probably pay two bets (you have to call the reraise just for info on the tell). Why risk two bets to gain one or, more likely, none?
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That is pretty much out of
Theory of Poker and it is correct. Nice.
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To a point. If you can fold to a raise, this is an easy bet. This type will usually call with many hands that he wouldn't bet with when checked to, yet only raise a better hand. His range is much wider for a calling hand of a bet than a bet when checked to(induced bluff) or raise. In that case, this would be a bet(also right out of TOP). The factor of him going for chips makes this very player dependent.
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