Re: $11+1 FT, toughest bubble I ever played, KJ on the button.
Jade :
if we fold, the probable action behind is SB push, BB calls and we have basically 50% chances being in the money directly + a significant chance left otherwise as UTG will get hit by the blinds before we do. I'd say we will money 75-80% of the time at least IF SB IS PUSHING. A fold from him would be a disaster for us.
if we push, SB will call a very significant % of the time (50, 60, more ?)and only if he does not, BB will call 100% of the time. There are also overcall situation but obv. very few. I don't know how many time we will win but probably something in the 55%-65% range depending on who his the caller. The remaining 35-45% we are out. If we're not out, then 50-60 % of the time (when SB call), BB will still be alive (but yes, with less than 1BB).
Now, limping is probably a bad idea in the end as there are no ante and BB can pay SB + BB and still has 180 left. If we limp / fold, we will probably be the fisrt eliminated by the blinds. So a fold seems better, hopping for push from SB.
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