Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
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why is it better to call off your chips with j3 than pushing 97o with 10bb??
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It's ranges, innit? In #2, I'm up against one player, closing the action. It's a pretty straightforward calculation. If he's pushing the top 64% (was it?) of his hands there, calling is +cEV. I think he is (he was, he had J3s but I flopped my flush booyah). The other issue is whether I can afford to fold. Which is to say, even if calling is -cEV, I would guess that we are not likely to find a +cEV or less -cEV spot in the next 7 hands.
97o from UTG+1 is a fold. We have more FE (being in EP and shoving 10BBs) but the CO can call comfortably and the BB can make a pot odds call closing the action. And, of course, with 7 players left to act, there is a reasonable chance that someone wakes up with a big hand. I think there are reasons for making a -cEV shove here: the blinds are going up and we're straight into them so we're losing all FE and we're not likely to find a better spot, I had a tight image, people respect EP raises. I'd shove 98s here for sure.
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