View Single Post
  #99  
Old 05-17-2007, 04:56 PM
AndyatSD AndyatSD is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 93
Default Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)

(Disclaimer - I've never used a hand history converter so if this comes out weird oops)

Hock,

While I was at work today I was sent a number of hands that you played this morning. When I looked at it I thought of this thread - maybe this is the kind of style that increases the probability of a huge swing? I don't doubt that you're a winning player - but I'm just wondering what your rationale on some of these hands are. It certainly isn't pre-flop mathematics, but I find it hard to believe if you are doing this solely based on the fact that you believe you have a huge edge post-flop. Any comments on it?

Cold Cap 33 Preflop against UTG raiser and 2-hole 3 better? How can that possibly be?

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ caps</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">doughnutz raises</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, doughnutz calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, doughnutz calls.

River: (11.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">doughnutz bets</font>, MP calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP has Qc Qd (one pair, queens).
doughnutz has 3h 3d (flush, jack high).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 13.75 BB. </font>

---

Flop call is purely trying to make a move on the turn or river? If so, I didn't really see a move - and calling the flop based on mathematics would have been fairly atrocius.

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, SB :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ calls.

Flop: (6 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
doughnutz checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, doughnutz calls.

Turn: (4 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
doughnutz checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, doughnutz calls.

River: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
doughnutz checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">doughnutz raises</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
doughnutz has 3s 5s (flush, ace high).
BB has Ac Qs (two pair, aces and queens).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 10 BB. </font>
---

Is calling 2 more bets with Ax (where x=trash) the conventional norm now? I think the probability of running into bigger Ax or pocket pair bigger than X is just way too big - obviously you disagree since I saw multiple hand histories where you did this?

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">doughnutz raises</font>, UTG folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">doughnutz bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">doughnutz 3-bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">doughnutz bets</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has Jh Jc (two pair, jacks and sevens).
doughnutz has 3d Ac (full house, threes full of sevens).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 14.50 BB. </font>

---

On the other hand - while A2s isn't in my range of opening hands UTG I suppose it's fine if it's in yours - I'm just curious about the turn call. Can that really be profitable play? You already risk drawing dead or extremely slim?

PokerStars 100/200 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop:
<font color="#CC3333">UTG :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG :#A500AF(doughnutz)/ caps</font>, MP calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">doughnutz bets</font>, MP calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">doughnutz bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, doughnutz calls.

River: (9.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">doughnutz bets</font>, MP calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
doughnutz has 2s As (two pair, aces and fives).
MP has Ks Kh (two pair, kings and fives).
Outcome: doughnutz wins 11.75 BB. </font>
---

I'm just very confused - maybe someone else can enlighten me - what's the merit behind these hands? I'd like to be able to add that to my game : )

~andy
Reply With Quote