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Old 05-14-2007, 06:54 PM
citanul citanul is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: taking your lunch money
Posts: 11,179
Default Re: OT: Do you guys think this is a good staking deal?

indi,

you say you're good at like, business business deals, right? so think about your post in terms of something that isn't poker. does that make it easier to understand?

throwing out your totally ridiculous claim that you should only need like 7 buyins to play hu games, and just looking at the other facts:

consider something that went like this:

i have a game i can play if i had a million dollars, i win 60% of the time. i can get someone to give me the million dollars, and if i win he gets 1/2 profits and his money back, if i lose we are done. you see how this rules for the player right? since we don't care about the backer, just realize that short rolled gambles where someone offers you full insurance must always rule for the player. if we consider it for the backer, he invests 1million, and he expects to get back

.4x0+.6x(1.5m)=900k. WHICH IS A LOSING PROPOSITION.

if you are assuming risk neutral backer, you can devolve short rolled propositions to effectively a straight payout. if you expect to win, and have a big enough bankroll, then most backing arrangements are +ev for the backer. they coudl still be crappy for the backer while being +ev because they are offering low potential for profit while tying up money with significant variance, but that doesn't matter much, since again, we don't really care if it's good for anyone but the player.

anyway, it is shocking that one could play a lot of sngs, and read this forum on a regular basis, and be too stupid to figure stuff like this out by themselves. this is because these concepts are talked about frequently. also, with you particularly you say you're good at business and thinking and stuff like that, so it's hilarious that you could make a post like this in earnest. similarly it's funny that anyone who thinks of themselves as as good at poker as you think of yourself wouldn't just take the shot on their own dime.
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