View Single Post
  #50  
Old 02-25-2006, 06:06 AM
Leviathan Leviathan is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Value betting second best hands
Posts: 141
Default Re: Meat And Potatoes Real Life Good Question

**Calculations part 3 (the end)**

4.Hero calls
Hand_____EV Hero Hand__Hero's share__Net win__________Prob win
_____Times_____Size pot_____Cost call_______Prob Hand
-------------------------------------------------------------------
AKs__2____0.66__1035__683___400___283_____10%_____ 43
AA __3____0,18__1035__186___400___-214_____30%_____-92
KK___1____0,50__1035__518___400___118_____5%______ 7
QQ___6____0,82__1035_849____400___449____30%_____2 47
JJ ___3____0,82__1035__849___400___449____15%_____82
goo__3____0,82__1035__849___400___449____10%_____8 2

EV=28-64+6+135+67+45=217$

Final EV of 4. (Hero calls)= +217$ (+117 just after cards are dealt).
Just calling seems to be the best decision.
BUT, as david stated, vilain will put Hero on a good hand. So, this time, not only do we have info on his hand, but he also have info on ours. Combined with his positional advantage over Hero, he may be able to outplay Hero postflop and so the EV of strategy 4 maybe much lower than what we came to.

So strategy 3 (small reraise) is likely to be the best choice, EV wise.
Now, have i won anything ?
(a 2+2 book would be greatly appreciated [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

ps: please tell me if i made errors/mistypes, writing this post was a pain, i can have mistyped a few figures.
Reply With Quote