[Nick C]

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So if you were to plug in those #'s into an equation using say 5% for a pp folding the turn, 2% for a cap, and 1% for a river bet than you'd get....an answer [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

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It looks like it would be a good play, under those circumstances. (Edit: Er, barely, and it depends in part on what the pp is; 22 and 77 are not equal here.)

There's been some strange math going on in this thread regarding the AK hand (or possibly I just don't understand the basis for it). But, if our plan is to 3-bet and then fold UI to any further aggression, the following seems to be the case (as I see it):

(1) If Villain has (his actual) 14-out draw and will never put any more money in the pot UI, the play nets us ~0.4 BB.

(2) If Villain has his actual 14-out draw and will always fire again on the river if we just call the turn checkraise and will also always shut off all aggression after getting 3-bet, the play is equal to calling down. (I see what Miles is saying about the how he can bet the river on an ace or king, but if we're so confident about Villain's tendencies, why not just raise-fold the river after that ace or king falls? It seems to amount to the same thing. I suppose an ace or king might shut Villain down on the river, though.)

(3) Okay, I'm mentioning this just because I don't understand Entity's ~70 percent figure, but . . .

If Villain will fire again on the river only 70 percent of the time after his 14-outer busts (and he will never semibluff-cap the turn or donk-bluff the river), then the calldown nets us about 0.2 BB less than the turn free-showdown raise would have.

(4) A turn semibluff-cap costs us about 6 BB any time Villain makes the play.

(5) A river donk-bluff costs us 10 BB any time Villain makes the play.


So, in any case, the basis is clear for Entity's claim that if Villain will 4-bet the turn or donk-bluff the river even a small percentage of the time, that cuts greatly into any gains we make on the play versus calling down. And the play becomes even more doubtful if we take into account that, like Entity says, in all likelihood Villain is going to fire again on the river if we just call the turn ~100 percent of the time.

Really, what we need is folding equity -- that's where our big gains are going to come from. Against a draw, we have no folding equity, but the question is how often Villain will fold a 38-outer (or 35-outer, or 32-outer) on the turn to our 3-bet. It is worth about 6 BB to us when he does.