[Entity]

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Entity: I think he has to be a gonzo value bettor to be betting the bottom 2/3s of his range when I'm ahead here. Also, given the PF action, I think his range is really weighted toward pairs/ace high type hands and less toward straight/flush draws

There are also metagame considerations. Being raise-folded by mediocre hands when OOP sucks and this should at least discourage perceptive opponents and set up some weird lines for later.

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I don't think the metagame reasons apply at all in these games and I seriously think you're inventing reasons and ranges in the first part that don't valuebet here that call. Basically I'm saying if he has AJ he doesn't call that often and if he has 77 he doesn't not bet it as often as you seem to think, and you still have to deal with the fact that you're losing any chance to get a bet from heart and flush draws which will often, in this game, fire the river again when they've bluffed the turn. And they will, of course, bluff the turn. My guess offhand is you're going to see something like 20% FSDR's, 50% legit hands, and 30% bluffs in these games. Maybe 25% FSDR's vs 50/25 other two. Let's say he has:

JT+, 66+

You're preventing any hands from bluffing and only really inducing a call, if you're incredibly lucky, out of a rare AK-type hand that FSDR'd the turn. Generally they won't bet AK on the river and might call with it like 15-20% of the time, but as for AT and AJ, I think that chance is relatively nonexistent. Offhand I'd wager that there are less than 12 combos of Ax hands that would pay off here that don't bet anyway. So maybe 12 Ax, 6x 77, 6x88. So 24 combos you get 1 more bet from, on a lucky day. In these games I'm reasonably certain TT and JJ bet the river vs you for value, so you earn nothing there. You lose 2 bets to 1 combo of QQ, 3 of 99, .5 of 55 (weighted 1/2 b/c they usually 3bet PF with that hand but not always and don't always peel flop), 6 to KK and 6 to AA. So basically you win 24BB extra by betting (even if we say TT and JJ don't bet the river 1/2 the time that's only 30BB) and you lose back 31BB by bet-calling in that spot. So you can kinda see that unless you get super generous with his calling range and/or super generous with his bluffraising range it's a bit tough to equal out. Then you have to factor in the chance, albeit small, that he 3barrels hands like JTs (4), KTss (1), KThh (1).

You seem to think your line looks like a bluff. I don't think it looks like a bluff at all, though I don't think it looks quite as strong as it is. Often I see this exact line from hands that are basically K9-ish.

As is I think it looks cutesy and creative but isn't actually as good as it looks. And if you posted the villain's name here I'd be able to more accurately assess it but I think it's just bad straight up, possibly worse if I had a specific read.

Rob