Re: Selecting a valid hand configuration for Monte-Carlo simulation
Ok, the (re) fix is in. It may not have been clear but previous versions of PokerStove were doing full resampling on collisions. But a specific scenario convinced me to try something else. Specifically, ten players holding broadway cards. Because there are 20 broadway cards, all cards are used in the scenario and satisfying the scenario with full resampling was nearly infeasible. So I started resampling on a hand by hand basis.
Clearly hand by hand resampling causes the MC results to skew away from the true results. But I still want difficult to realize scenarios to be workable.
I've just now implemented a hybrid MC evaluator. The basic behaviour is to do full resampling of all hands, but if collisions start to dominate the number of samples more and more collisions are resolved by resampling of the hand which collides. It's important to note here that full resampling is not turned off unless a very high proportion of generated scenarios result in collisions. Even then hand by hand resampling is only gradually allowed. The details are rather mechanical and boring, but if anyone is interested, let me know.
So in general, for basic scenarios the MC results should converge to the Enumerate All value (unless you are unlucky), but for scenarios which are very difficult to satisfy using resampling, there will be some divergence.
I'll see if I can get the installer up later today.
- Andrew
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