Re: Does he have AK often enough (3 bet on turn)
People seem to hate folding. I didn't expect it to be so unanimous. Here is my analysis.
Remember he's 33/22/1.8 over 210 hands or so. Given that he's seen me play that much, he has to figure I have something on the turn.
Hands he always plays like this:
I'm ahead - A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (1 combo)
I'm behind - AA, JJ (3 combos)
You could argue with jacks, but I think a fairly aggressive pfr 22 guy is going to be capping jacks and betting that flop every time.
Sometimes will play this way:
I'm ahead - A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], AK not both spades (7 total combos)
I'm behind - 88, 77 (4 total combos)
I'm getting effective odds of 13:2 here. Actually, that's huge. Thinking it through, even without any of the sometimes hands (I think adding them in helps me more than hurts me) I'm ahead 1 time in 4 and if ahead will win on the river when no king or spade comes, which coincidentally is 3 times in 4. So the probability of winning the pot is (1/4)(3/4) = 3/16 and the odds against are 13:3. So assuming he will also bet the river on a missed AsKs I'm getting sufficient odds to call down. It appears that even if he would check behind on the river when behind calling is still good.
Guess it was clearer than it appeared.
|