[Schneids]

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do you agree that you have either 0, 2, or 4 outs the vast majority of the time? What percentage do you think you have each?

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I didn't have the time to calculate this on the fly obviously, but my guess was roughly:

0 outs = 20%

3 outs = 10%

4 outs = 60%

6 outs = 10%

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Firstly I don't agree with those estimates, but that's semantics, so whatever.

Secondly, lets look at your 60% case, where you have 4 outs. In that case, patrik has a flush draw, and I have some PP QQ or smaller. You hit an A or K on the turn. Now, me and Patrik have 10-11 outs against you to river you with. So, your 4 outer is actually more like a 3.1 outer. And so on and so forth for your other estimated # of outs. You can only really count your outs as you did if they are nut-draw type outs (like say you had AJo and the board was KT5r and you're trying to estimate your outs on an action heavy flop)

Plus your flop call also means you'll have odds for a turn call, so really the 13:1 you're getting on the flop is not as enticing of a price as that. Basically, the flop call is a compounding error IMO.