Re: Derby Picks
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1) I actually had thought most had run more races. Maybe I was mistaken or confused
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Yeah, no shti!
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Your stuff about parimutual pools doesn't seem to account for the large takeout
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VIP has a 15% rebate - you can find 10-12% anywhere easily. The VIP takeout is a huge 2%, zomg! This is for their pari-mutuel betting, fyi. It doesn't seem like you knew that.
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and the typical patterns that exist in them where faves/longshots are overpriced (This is a back the Royals, fade the yankees comment I heard that is considered generally correct, but needs specific review).
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I'll correct you - in horse racing, unlike baseball, decades of data on thousands of races at every track tell us the exact opposite - that underdogs are *always* overpriced due to the retail bettor looking to hit the 50-1 shot and remembering the very, very few horses that do so like Giacomo & Ferdinand at KD, and Mojave and Action This Day and Arcangues at 133-1 winning the BC Classic.
There are several horse racing books that will prove this out to you with stats beyond your wildest imagination, Beyer and others have written on it for decades.
Again, this does not mean that StSense should go off at 6-5. Just that, statistically speaking, Joe Sixpack would rather take 40-1 odds on a horse he likes than lay 3-5 on a horse.
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