Re: Derby Picks
I agree that 130, should he go off at that, isn't the efficient price. That's why I used 160. And this particular horse, with his style, past performances and breeding could easily go off at -500 instead of the -250 I calculated. I tried to create cushion to adjust for the vig when using +160 times -250 to calculate the +264 fair value.
If nothing else, my money is where my mouth is. Big big bet at +360. I figure I'll hold some, arb some, and see what the field looks like.
My preliminary inclination is to bet against him in the race itself, but it's simply too early to know how the track will be playing, who will enter, what posts they get, and most importantly what the pace scenario will look like.
But in the two biggest races he's run in (Derby and BC Juvy), where every horse he competed against was primed for their peak possible effort, only one horse out of 32 raceday opponents was able to get within 8 lengths of him, and he's about to face a weaker field than either of those. I suspect he's a horse for the course at CD, but one still has to respect that kind of domination.
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