[donkfish]

i lead out almost every time. the pot is $27 so i think that anything between $12-15 should to it. if he raises then you pass.

i think leading out is the best play here as it helps you to define his hand - if you check and he bets then you still dont know if you are ahead in the hand or not, thus hands that you are ahead of will be able to take the pot away from you.

if the player is very aggressive and you think that he is capable of smooth calling the flop and raising you with air on the turn then i would check raise the turn, otherwise i lead out.

hope i helped