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Old 05-08-2007, 06:01 PM
Lestat Lestat is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 4,304
Default Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)

That's not true joker. One reason (among others), why Schneids might earn more than I do in a game, is that he pushes some small edges that I won't push. So yes, his earn is higher, but his swings figure to be more severe. Of course, he can make up for that by doing other things better than I do, such as hand reading, etc.

A guy who is pretty much considered by everyone I've ever talked to as one of the top limit hold'em players around, dropped over 100bb's in a live 400-800 session. Now that's something that would be (almost) impossible for me to do.

I understand what you're saying (that a higher win rate reduces variance), but that's when all else is the same. When you push miniscule edges that someone else doesn't push, you're going to be wrong sometimes. And when running bad, you're going to often lose even when you're not wrong. This means swinging more even with a higher earn than a more conservative player. In fact...

I know players who happily accept a smaller earn for reduced variance. They'll play in smaller games even though they could probably make a little more if they played higher. The extra profit isn't worth the added variance due to the more aggressive games (and reduced edge).
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