Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)
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"That is impressive, because I'm pretty sure I played with you at the Commerce a few months ago and remember thinking you have a very high variance style.
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the concept of one style being more high variance than another strikes me as totally bogus. the fact is, your edge in a game determines how much variance you incur. if schneids is doing things like bloating pots but plays that game at a true winrate of 2bb/100, he'll have much less variance than a more conservative and passive player whose true winrate is 1.5bb/100.
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The 2bb/100 won't have less variance. He'll have more variance, as you describe his play. But he might not notice it as much in terms of prolonged downswings, etc. since he has more of a cushion to work from.
Different styles of play definitely have different concomitant variance. To conclude otherwise is to fly in the face of both the facts and common sense. Someone who plays 40% of his hands in a 6-max game is going to have more variance than someone who plays 25% of his hands since the variance from folding a hand is zero. By the same token, someone who puts more bets in on average after the flop is going to have more variance than someone who tends to play fit-or-fold (though sometimes players who play passively can have fairly high variance since they tend to put a lot of bets in, just not all at once).
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