[BobJoeJim]

Excellent points, Najdorf. Although I think it depends on how confident you want to be. To say that someone IS a long term winner, based off of 500, or even 5000, or even 65k sample sets is stupid, because you can never be sure. On the other hand, if you wait until you've made 100k picks then by the time you find out that you really were a long-term winner you'll be old and gray, and have missed out on a lifetime of sports betting profits.

500 picks IS enough to determine that your ODDS are significantly better than 50% that you are a long term winner. If there's even a 60-65% chance that you will win in the long term, which I think is safe to say based on the OP's numbers, then I would say it's worth it to start risking real money on your picks. Don't do anything stupid, study risk management, bet within your bankroll, be smart about it. But start betting. You're more likely to be a winner than a loser based on the evidence so far, so go with that until proven otherwise. Especially since the bonuses you can earn as a new bettor will help negate a good portion of your risk, if it turns out you aren't a winner. Just make sure you start with a bankroll that you can afford to lose, if the risk of ruin catches up with you, since that is always a possibility. But start betting.

I think that given the OP's stats, refusing to risk real money would be the equivalent of passing up a bet at -110 on a game you KNEW was a 60% shot. Obviously you don't bet everything on it, you stick to what you can afford to loese, but if you aren't willing to risk money on that game, you won't ever be a winning sports bettor, your outlook is more suited to a savings account.

My two cents.