[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you might be slightly results oriented...
i think a key point to this hand is that you didn't C bet the flop.
right away he knows you don't have a set cuz you guys are too deep to do anything stupid like slowplaying sets.
he's got to put you on a marginal hand that you think has some decent showdown value + chance to improve and you would like to see another card hence the check behind.

if you had air you bet, and if you had a monster you bet, but by checking behind (which you say you have been doing very rarely) he's able to narrow your hand down considerably.

however i think from his perspective your more likely to have a weak jack, a good 9, or an overpair then a 3, as with bottom pair you'd be more likely to bet figuring the times you take it down on the flop will be more profitable then the times you improve your hand to win at showdown, therefore i think his range for turn+river play is much wider then duck laid out, and i think its a really good spot for him to set up a nice river CR bluff.

i def think you have to call the river, he's gonna show up there with a worse 3/AA-QQ/bluff enough to make the call profitable, and folding a hand like this in a spot like this in a 3 handed game is just not gonna fly.

as for my assertion that he will also show up with AA/KK/QQ a decent amount of the time the fact that he had JJ in this spot reinforces this notion, as he was clearly playing to trap you OOP with what he knew to be the best hand preflop and didn't want to give away the value of his hand by 3 betting vs what he knows is such a wide open raising range.

so if he plays JJ like this he will DEFINITELY play AA/KK/QQ this way and a good player will not be scared to CR the river in this spot for value with an overpair as that 3 on the turn looks like a perfect card.

don't be results oriented, if you won this hand and he had AA you'd be posting asking if you played the hand too weak and should have shoved the river.

edit: i fold hand 2 90% of the time.

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of the three hands you mentioned, one of them made a boat on the river (qqq). so he has to have two hands that i beat, and a i lose to k10, 108, and any boat. also, it makes zero sense here for him to make that big of a river cr as a bluff (give he is out of position and given his donk turn/lead call). it's much more likely he was drawing or had a made hand on the turn. espeically from what he knows about HIS image, he knows he will get looked up very light so he has to bet very big on his big hands to compensate. the reason i called was not because i thought he was bluffing, combined with his live antics, i thought there was maybe 10% chance he was bluffing (but it's probably less). i called because i thought he could be value raising worse trips. however, i think that's a mistake as well. it's not results, it's just the logic of the hand. many hands are a lot easier to work out after the fact than they are in the heat of the moment. adding all the pieces together, he doesn't do this enough with the two hands you mentioned to merit a call. however, the two hands you mentioned are certainly part of his range, so thanks for pointing them out.