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  #44  
Old 05-07-2007, 01:24 PM
riverboatking riverboatking is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: held down by the man
Posts: 1,582
Default Re: RESULTS....i got pwned.

i think you might be slightly results oriented...
i think a key point to this hand is that you didn't C bet the flop.
right away he knows you don't have a set cuz you guys are too deep to do anything stupid like slowplaying sets.
he's got to put you on a marginal hand that you think has some decent showdown value + chance to improve and you would like to see another card hence the check behind.

if you had air you bet, and if you had a monster you bet, but by checking behind (which you say you have been doing very rarely) he's able to narrow your hand down considerably.

however i think from his perspective your more likely to have a weak jack, a good 9, or an overpair then a 3, as with bottom pair you'd be more likely to bet figuring the times you take it down on the flop will be more profitable then the times you improve your hand to win at showdown, therefore i think his range for turn+river play is much wider then duck laid out, and i think its a really good spot for him to set up a nice river CR bluff.

i def think you have to call the river, he's gonna show up there with a worse 3/AA-QQ/bluff enough to make the call profitable, and folding a hand like this in a spot like this in a 3 handed game is just not gonna fly.

as for my assertion that he will also show up with AA/KK/QQ a decent amount of the time the fact that he had JJ in this spot reinforces this notion, as he was clearly playing to trap you OOP with what he knew to be the best hand preflop and didn't want to give away the value of his hand by 3 betting vs what he knows is such a wide open raising range.

so if he plays JJ like this he will DEFINITELY play AA/KK/QQ this way and a good player will not be scared to CR the river in this spot for value with an overpair as that 3 on the turn looks like a perfect card.

don't be results oriented, if you won this hand and he had AA you'd be posting asking if you played the hand too weak and should have shoved the river.

edit: i fold hand 2 90% of the time.