RESULTS....i got pwned.
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1) his range here IMO is boat 65% straight 30% bare trips 5% in terms of his raising for value range. then there are bluffs. you have to figure out how often he's bluffing, but you don't beat his value raising range like ever. IMO this huge river c/r is rarely a bluff since ppl rarely c/r river bluff and usually not this big... so i'd fold.
2) i'd prefer to bet/fold this river, i think you lose value from worse trips and top pair hands by checking. but once you check it should be to check/fold since he usually has pairs or draws, and when you check he checks behind pairs. if he bluffs missed straight draws sometimes but always bets flushes and always checks pairs, you're a big dog to his river betting range... so i also think this one is a fold once you check the river.
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I think this is the most solid advice I have read so far amongst the others. The river CR was just sooo big, and combined with his antics (his standard M.O. is to use double reverse psychology--which I didn't mention before) should have dictated a fold. Also, and this is someone no one commented on, his donk turn bet/calling of the raise should have tipped me off that he was trapping (hence, he was inducing a raise). In any case, I literally thought for about 5-8 minutes, and finally called. He had JJJ.
2) On this hand, this was a super ez fold. When he calls the pot-sized flop cr, and he calls the turn bet, he is not floating. He either has a combo draw, or straight draw. I guess there is a chance he has a one pair hand like KK,AA,JJ, so I'm not sure if betting is preferred here, but I think I like to check, with the intention of check folding. Also, his river bet size is super scary here, since it's so much in the "value range."
He had AQss, having turned top pair.
One line I really thought would have been dirty was cring to like 15kish or so. Stack sizes would have been perfect for a river shove.
ps. for anyone who thinks nyu dave is a donk (either me or or the other nyu dave) both of us LOVE to play hu. and nyu dave is up a LOT more than most people's bankrolls in the past month or so in the biggest games in the city, so he's doing just fine...
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