Re: Derby Picks
19 of 20 Horses are Dual Qualifiers, I think. Doesn't mean anything much anyway - see Charismatic, Smarty Jones, etc.
Hard Spun upon going from 1mi to 1.125mi went from 95 to 101 Beyer. That should be a plus.
Agree totally on Scat Daddy, hoping his odds get better.
StSense's Beyer is from 6+ months ago, which makes it fairly useless, imho. You should be concerned his Beyer dropped from 102 to 93 upon going from 1/16 to 1.125mi.
Esp for the post-time [possible] favorite. No horse has run that slow a Beyer and won in many, many years in their final prep. On average, a Derby winner's final prep shows a 3-pt improvement, pointing to recent form as ultra-important.
SDaddy up 3, CCat up 10, HSpun up 6, Nobiz up 3, Quay up 25, Tiago, Curlin.
In fact, out of the last 58 horses who's Beyer dropped >2pts going into Derby, none have won. Yikes. I don't believe in the BC jinx, but this one makes a lot of sense to me. StSense's best Beyer was 3 starts ago.
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