Re: The Worst Strategy You\'ve Overheard at a Table
He has 0-FE, and if he hits he flush he will get calls. This is a live game. There's no such thing as "an obvious flush".
Also remember that this is on the turn. He has a naked flushdraw, so he has 9 outs, some of which may be dirty.
Figuring him to have 9 clean outs, he has 19% equity. So he'll need at least 3 callers for the push to be breakeven. If he get's 4 callers, then he's getting 5:1 pot odds on a 4:1 chance to hit.
A smoothcall is hugely +EV (8:1 pot odds, 4:1 to hit) with no uncertainty. I think it's obviously the best play.
|