[Siegmund]

I would define believe as "accept as truth," with an implied undertone of "...without proof it actually is the truth."

One can believe there's a 70% chance that Jesus was resurrected, but that's something very different than believing Jesus was resurrected.

Its one of the things the Bayesians do quite well - identifying situations where some degree of belief is required, and forcing you to make some assessment of what your beliefs are before they'll give you odds of anything. Not saying they have all the answers - but I think the idea of a prior sums up the idea of belief well.... operating from there onward as if something were true (perhaps retaining some awareness that it may not be - but usually you have committed to not revisiting that assumption anytime soon.)