[.Alex.]

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Isn't it just that you think it is more likely than not? That certainly is true in non religious connotations.


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Nah. In most situations "believe" is used the same as "think." For example, "I believe people are naturally good" or "I believe I did well on the last exam." This requires much more than the 50% threshold of certainty that "more likely than not" is based on. You don't hear many people say, "I believe I'll win my race with 22 vs AK."

Obviously this varies, but I'd say most people would only use "believe" if they are at least 80% sure of something.