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For the strategy to work LA has to win by 1 less than about 20% of the time.
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From the
Forum FAQ:
How often are Major League Baseball games decided by one run?
# From Betting Baseball by Michael Murray, when the home team wins they win by 1 run 31.7% of the time. When the away team wins, its by 1 run 23.6% of the time
# Keep in mind, however, that a game is more likely to be decided by 1 run if it is lower scoring, and less likely to be decided by 1 run if it is high scoring.