[DJ Sensei]

-the long run is much longer than you think
-great players' styles are constantly evolving as well, so that their ranges are always difficult to accurately estimate. this prevents accurate specific equity calculations in thin situations like this, and makes intuition and creativity more important.

thus, much of thin betting (which is all i think this whole idea really is) is short-term guesswork. you can either play a solid game without these bets, and lower your variance (though potentially be an easier opponent to read later) or choose to accept the potential higher variance in exchange for a strong advantage over your opponents in the future (if/when you adapt to the new dance of your actual and perceived ranges better than they do)


so, i think that the concept of a "two-way bet" or "value bluff" is rather ridiculous, as you can't hope for both results to occur. its simply a thin bet one way or another, and the particular results are mostly irrelevant so long as the scale of future success exceeds that of possible short-term variance/loss.