[Bishop22]

I think Tiago is going to be a money burner on the bottom of the exotics, crawling home in a less than stellar SA Derby as his only credential. When the HTR pace data comes out later in the week I'll probably have have some hard numbers to back up my BS.

Curlin is perhaps going to be the biggest money burner in derby history, I realize that a lot of the historical derby 'truths' have gone by the wayside recently but no horse since 1882 has won a derby without a single race as a two year-old, no horse has won with three lifetime preps since 1915.

I agree Hard Spun is a better bet than Curlin but I am not sold that this is a good spot, any hint of fragility in this race and I am passing. It'd be a small miracle if more than a couple horses avoid serious contact, let alone a horse that probably has to be close to the pace. The reason I haven't paid any attention to Cowtown Cat is also because he probably needs to be on the lead and I only see one pace horse factoring at most, not a specific horse just whichever horse benefits most from the post draw.

I really think its great that everyone is trying to find an angle, a wise-guy horse or whatever, makes for good discussion, I just really feel this is going to be a chalky year, if you ran this race 100 times, I think the big five of CQ, SD, NoBiz, SS and Saturday would win at least 90.