Re: Derby Picks
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Is the love for Hard Spun simply that he has a good Beyer Rating? I have yet to see him run, but I always feel wary of horses that have not run in a real competitive race. He does have the "Philly Connection."
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Well, I've been eyeballing HSpun for a while to figure out where he goes on my card - and given today's workout, he may go at the top. He ran 5 furlongs in 57 2/5ths, the fastest Derby week workout in 34 years. Yes, thirty-four.
He's won in rain, fast dirt, and Polytrack, the surface does not affect him.
He's 5 for 6 lifetime, sire is Danzig, only the N.A. sire with most stakes winners, ever, Lure, Danzig Connection, Pine Bluff, etc. HS is one of 5 horses in the Derby with 2 graded Stakes wins under his belt. At 18-1 he seems like a really good bargain, right up there with War Emblem at 22-1 and Monarchos in low double-digits [both of whom I had along with Smarty and Barbaro, both posted here].
In final race only Circular Quay and Curlin put up [slightly] better Beyers, and that was CQuay's only win this year. He looks great physically, one track writer called him 'Awesome-looking' before he ran today.
Curlin is about 5-1 now while Hard Spun is 17-1. I think I can spot the underlay and overlay.
Right now I'm thinking some order of Cowtown Cat, Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Nobiz/Tiago/Quay in the exotics. Of course, wait to see post position, final gallops, and track odds before I pull the final trigger.
Oh, the horse that ran 57-flat in his final workout. A horse you may have heard of -- Forego, 3-time Eclipse winner, 16 major Handicaps/Stakes wins, ranked #8th best horse of the Century.
So did he win the Derby? Nope, he lost to a big red horse named Secretariat, who of course set the track record.
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