Re: I\'m paranoid that I\'m folding too much
I think clearly you should have bet/ folder the turn. As you didn't I still think it's probably worth calling down.
Below is some shoddy math to back up where I'm coming from.
Lets assume that villain will call river bet, therefore final winnings will be 5.1BB.
If you are behind you have 6 outs, giving odds of 6.7:1 (or 1/7.7). If you win you get 5.1/7.7 = 0.66BB. If you loose you get 6.7/7.7 * -1=-0.87, giving you expected value of 0.66 -0.87 = -0.21.
If you are ahead, lets assume (quite conservatively) that you will still be ahead at showdown 70% of the time. Your expected winnings would be (70%*5.1) + (30% * -2as it would cost you 2BB) = +2.97
So, if you think you are only ahead 10% of the time here your combined expected value is (10% * 0.29) + (90% * -0.21) = +0.1BB. i.e. +ve EV from calling in this situation.
If you'd led the turn you could factor in the semi bluff benefit too.
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