[kaby]

Mmm I can't edit anymore


Ok I tried to give the limper a big range like your average villain so let's assume he calls the flop with every ace, a lot of kings and queens and a lot of gutshots, stuff like that... also some random suited crap just because he's clueless. I don't know how accurate this range is but I think this is too loose (it's 53% of all hands). I removed AK and AA-KK, so this assumes he is like a 60/4 villain I guess. Bit too loose for a .25/.50 unknown?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

23,056 games 0.005 secs 4,611,200 games/sec

Board: 8h 3h 9c Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.541% 36.54% 00.00% 8425 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 63.459% 63.46% 00.00% 14631 0.00 { QQ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q5s+, J5s+, T5s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, AQo-A2o, K7o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 53o, 43o, 32o }

If villain does not fold any of these hands (and I think it's very optimistic of you to think he'll fold even 32o) a bet is not for value. And that's assuming he calls stuff like every J5s or K2s.

So no, I still don't get it. There is no value in a bet.

We loose .36BB on a turn b/f if he never folds that we have to make up on the river to make a b/f +ev. If he bets all his hands when we check to him on the river and a blank falls (let's assume it's the 2 of spades), he still has 65% equity so a call would be -ev. And that's assuming he bets all hands...

When an ace falls and we bet river we win .77BB if it's the Ah if he once again calls all his hands (So also random T high hands - this is obviously a huge oversimplification in our advantage), .83BB if it's the Ad and .78 if it's the Ac.

For the kings it's .78BB, .79BB and .84BB

So when 6 cards fall we make .80BB on average. With every other card a call is -ev even when he bets all his missed draws so we c/f river UI.

So river expected value is (6/46)*(.80)= .10BB. Not enough to compensate for the lost .36BB on the turn.

A turn bet is not correct. How about c/c'ing?

Let's say villain bets every hand when we check to him, and will do the same on the river. Then we are risking 2 BB by calling to win 5BB and this is the best case scenario where villain bets all his draws. So in this case a calldown is +EV, but that's assuming villain bets every draw twice and that's just not going to happen, so that's not a good option imho.


So b/f turn is negative ev* and c/c c/c is positive ev but only under very unlikely circumstances where we need a read that villain is very agressive. We don't have a read so why not go for the neutral EV of c/f'ing?

*Unless you can make him fold a lot of made hands. But do you really think that is going to happen?


This is one of the first times I do a big pokerstove post like this so I'd also like to get comments on my methods and thinking process, thx!