Re: good time for a combo bet v. a TAG? or do those bets not exist....
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everything TWP said is right and i can't imagine anyone thinking otherwise on this topic. the value bluff just means "i have no idea what's going on here"
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the point is, we can never ever know for sure what we are doing in a particular hand, because we don't know with 100% accurately. I agree if we knew our opponents hand range two-way bets would never exist. However, given that we only know an approximation of his range, and we know for SURE that he will sometimes fold better and sometimes call worse, when we make a bet in a really close spot like this one how can we ever be sure that we are value betting or bluffing? Obviously other scenarios are much more clear.
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i'm mulittabling so deleted my post because i realized i can't really add anything right now. but your emphasis on certainty is weird and misplaced: say you think you're valuebetting mid set and the guy folds bottom set on the river. it's still a value bet even though it turns out you were "bluffing." certainty of somebody's range isn't necessary for whether we label something a vb or a bluff, the label is determined by what you THINK your opponent's range and corresponding actions are. the reason the value bluff is tempting as a concept is because you don't know what you think is going on.
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Pretty sure its a bluff if they fold a better hand, not a worse one (then its a value bet, ducy?).
I think that there is such a thing as a thin value bet, but it isn't as cut and dry as a lot of people have been making it out to be.
A bet can be used to fold out many better hands in some cases, say your opponent doesn't realize the ability you have to merge your hand ranges to the extent you do and you bet pot all-in on a board of 34653 with A6 in a blind battle after you have been called twice. Here, he may fold 99, he may call with A5, deciding that you're still trying to represent the straight and that he is capable of floating the turn with a pair and gutshot to a higher straight, something like that. When called, it is really dependent on your image in the game, so you can gear the nature of the bet, most likely with your bet sizing/timing, to best fit what you view to be your opponents perception of what you would do here.
He may look you up light, as we obviously want since we make more, or he may make a reasonable laydown and toss a 99 type hand or 65 type hand. The results allow us to be better paid regardless, whether it be this hand or in future hands. Since he may call with worse or fold better hands, it is a double-sided bet.
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