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Old 04-27-2007, 02:26 AM
TheWorstPlayer TheWorstPlayer is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: No longer losing money bluffing
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Default Re: good time for a combo bet v. a TAG? or do those bets not exist....

Dave,

I think two-way bets really cannot possibly exist. I mean, think about it. That's basically saying that he's going to behave irrationally. Because it means that he'll call some weaker hands in his range and fold some stronger hands in his range. He only has one hand range here. Maybe you know what it is and maybe you don't, but in truth he has some specific hand range here. And if you assume that he always sets some threshold within that range and calls with hands stronger than that threshold and folds hands weaker (which is rational, it's not rational to fold stronger hands than some hands you call with, right?) then it is impossible to have a two-way bet. Either there is a +EV segment of his hand range that he'll call and that you beat, or there isn't. If there is, it's a value bet, if there isn't, it's a bluff.

It only SEEMS like it's a two-way bet, because it's a thin value bet or a thin bluff and so sometimes it goes either way. But this is just randomness and if it works out the way you wanted it to, that's because you got LUCKY. It is completely impossible for two-way bets to exist if your opponent plays rationally. It only seems that way because you have no idea what you're doing because you dont' know his hand range and you dont know how he acts with each segment of it. So you throw a bet out there, hoping to get lucky, and when you do you call it a two-way bet.

- TWP
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