Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
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How many picks? For the first time, i've been keeping track of all my pics this year (without betting actual money on them). I want to know at what point I can be comfortable investing my hard earned dollars on this and expect to come out on top in the long run. 200 picks...500, 1000?
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I would say 1000 is a bare minimum if you are talking ATS or O/U, but still the short-run. To be confident you are a long term winner would take at least 5000 bets in my book.
You will definitely go through streaks/downswings of 50-100 bets or more, just flip a coin/do a monte carlo of a 50/50 prop and see how long some of the 'runs' get for heads or tails. Doesn't mean it's non-random.
Anyone who thinks 500 bets is enough to declare yourself a longterm winner is kidding themselves, of course, that's why so few people make a living at this.
Naj [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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