[juku]

Hi all,
very interesting conversation.
One point that has not been discussed so far:
Being 33 years old You really making a strategic decision to become a pro. So, how do You see the future of poker business, especially Your competition?
I live in Germany and played Chess (on a rather high level) for 10 years and play poker for two years.
I see two trends in Poker:
Short-term: Large flow of inexperienced new player that feed the game (on all levels) and will eventually loose interest.
Mid-term: New generation of (young) poker players (mainly with scientific background) from all over the world especially (eastern) Europe, Asia attracted by fast money.
Compare it with chess: As a professional chess player You probably have to be in the top 100 in the world to make Your living (and not a rich one). It was my favorite hobby I had a couple of 100 books written on chess and spend several hours training a day when I went to school. On a good day I was able to beat someone in the top 1000 in the world.
In these days You still see some poker players who may have read two or three books, think they are good players and play for money.
In chess no one would play against professionals they constantly loose against.
Have You read “The Mathematics of Poker”?
One simple example: SB vers. BB confrontations in NLHE tournaments, especially endgames.
You will not win a penny against me, if I act according to the “Jam or Fold strategy” presented there. So this part of the game is dead. I learned the matrix. How many players do know the numbers (M + jamming range) now, how many will know them in the future?
I am sure there will be literature/research devoted to single topics like:
“How to play AKoff on the flop for dummies”.
“How to play flush draws on the flop”.
“Randomizing Your preflop play with suited connectors.”
and so on with mixed strategies based on computational results for all shape of flops. Reading and learning them will reduce the game between experts to the factor of luck with a negative win rate being equal to the rake. Such literature/research exists in Chess already for 50 years…
So I expect that in 5 to 10 Years Your win rate will decrease dramatically.
My personal approach: I am still satisfied with my couple of hundred dollars I make each month by playing NLHE tourneys (with micro entries like 5-20$) after work.
At some point I will online-qualify for a main poker event. (It was already very close several times). But I would not quit my 100k+€ job for an uncertain future.
This might look too pessimistic to You but I think some people do not see that there is a poker hype and money always attracts good people.