Re: When can you be confident that you are a winner?
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Nope. 374x$110 bet = $41140.
2644/41140= 6.43%.
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I would adjust my unit when my bankroll has grown 20%, and never adjust when my bankroll is down.
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I prefer to resize everyday when you are betting a small unit size, but plenty of people use thresholds and there's not really anything wrong with it. However, not adjusting when you are losing is a recipe for disaster.
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I disagree. It would take a monumental downswing for me to lose 100 units (one that I haven't seen to this date). I have lost over 50 a few times however. If I had adjusted my unit when I was losing, I would have had to win SIGNIFICANTLY more bets than I otherwise would have to get back to even. I think adjusting when you are down just makes it one big teeter totter. When I lose, and don't adjust, I only have to win back the bets I lost. If I do adjust, I have to win back more than I lost.
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You're right that lowering your bet when you go on a downswing will make it take longer to get your head back above water, but keeping your bet flat when you're in a downswing will greatly increase your risk of ruin. Overall, it's personal preference which matters to you, but my outlook is that if you prefer a higher risk of ruin, to avoid the grind, you are less likely to be a long term winner. That's not meant to be a knock on anyone who disagrees, it's just my personal gambling philosophy.
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Cool..I agree with you. I'm comfortable with the ROR when playing with 1% bets...in fact, that's why I don't do 2% which I've felt tempted to in the past.
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One other way to look at it, as well, is let's say your unit is 1%. You go on a 50 unit downswing. If you keep your original unit size and keep betting, your units have become 2%. If you aren't comfortable with the ROR that comes from a 2% unit, then you HAVE to cut your unit size in half if you lose half your bankroll.
Of course that's a somewhat extreme situation, 50 units is a lot to lose, but it's not that extreme, it certainly can happen. If you say that you would not reduce your unit size in a downswing, while at the same time saying that you aren't comfortable with the risk of ruin from a higher percentage unit, then you're directly contradicting yourself. Neither view is wrong, but you should probably choose one opinion or the other that you're comfortable with.
And here's wishing you the best of luck, may you never have such a downswing, that this discussion may remain purely theoretical!
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